I use asian handicap because of two main reasons:
1. I
risk less because odds are always high so I need fewer correct games to be in
profit.
2. In my opionion another advantage for betting on
asian handicap is that bookmaker sets line so you will only have to choose better line ( let's say line is
-1/2 but you can search for
-0.25 ), not better odd ( supposing odds are always
1.90/1.90 ).
I use a
combined strategy that involves many aspects .
Let me explain my
strategy.
1. First I have searched and added to my shortlist some leagues that can be reliable and results are often
predictable and
not ambiguous leagues . My leagues are first
english leagues. I find enough games in these leagues . Depending on my knowledge I have more leagues.
2. From these leagues I choose games where I can find
informations,
previews, anything
valuable that are decisive for a game.
3. If I can watch games from that league ( for example
English Premier League ) I note on my paper coach
tactics from my point of view. For example, Rafa Benitez from Liverpool prefers to win
2-0 than winning
6-2 a game. This tells me he is more preoccupied by
final result than beating handicap.
Also I note on a paper or I search on internet teams formation. For example a team with 4-4-2 formation is more likely to
beat handicap than a team playing 4-5-1 formation .
For first 3 steps is more a start of the season research . During season I only update if something changed.
My daily analyse starts from step 4.
4. This step I think is
most important for me. I try to explain this step clear.
I will take an example from
English Premier League. Let's take two teams from this year:
Liverpool ( a good team ) and
Birmingham ( a bad team ). For every game these teams play, bookmakers set their lines . For
Liverpool's games lines are always sharp (
AH -1 , AH -1.25 , AH -1.5 ) when Liverpool plays against poor teams . For
Birmingham, lines are in their favour because this team is supposed to struggle and fight against relegation ( they give
AH +0.5 , AH +1 , AH +1.5 ).
Maybe you don't know but for every game played this handicap is included in statistic! For every game played, for example
Liverpool game, if Liverpool plays home and
asian handicap is
-1.5 and final result is
2-1 for Liverpool, although Liverpool won the game in
handicap statistic Liverpool lost. This statistic is my main betting base. This means that Liverpool played worse than expected. They should have won easily that game .
So, what I do? I start from my opinion that bookies set correct
asian handicap. I search for good teams that
LOST their handicap many times consecutive ( for me at least 3 times or 4 times is enough ). I search those teams from all today's offer and write them on paper for further investigation. From let's say 50 games per day I end up with 8-9 games left on my shortlist.
5.
Next step is searching for
team statistic. Here I am interested most in
goals per game
scored and received. I eliminate games where that have poor statistic because although these teams are set favourite by bookies, their real play is bad.
6. I search for
injuries or any other news that can
affect usual style of play .If I find something bad for favourite teams I eliminate that game from my shortlist .
7. With remaining games on my list I place my bets. I use
flat betting system with
5% of my bank stake on every bet .
To make my work easier so I found some sites that can help me:
www.7m.cn - main site used for asian handicap tracking system
www.sfstats.net - used for goals per game
www.betbrain.com - used to search for best asian handicap lines
other sites - injuries , team news , previews
I use some sites for general info. First I use
club's websites:
http://www.soccerassociation.com ( or other webpages I already stored )
if I have enough time to study. If not , I use :
For previews:
1 )
http://www.bethelp.com/
This page from www.bethelp.com contains previews of the games and many useful news.
2)
www.sportinglife.com
For injuries:
1)
http://www.betinf.com/ - transfers
2)
http://www.totalctrl.info/
3)
http://www.physioroom.com/
specially here: http://
www.physioroom.com/sports/football/index.php?SKEY=43e44a272401660c87172782cd2e329b this last site is my favourite one.
Aditional info:
http://
www.football-lineups.com/
http://www.newsnow.co.uk/newsfeed/?name=Sport
For more info go here!
